Auto producers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced intermittent factory closures in the second half of this year and things may get worse before they get better. Motor vehicles production will remain stop-start until shortages of semiconductors and other key inputs are resolved, which we don’t expect to happen anytime soon. We think that the fall in CEE motor vehicles production relative to its pre-pandemic trend will knock 0.6% or so off GDP in 2021, rising to 0.8% in 2022.
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