The survey data for Central Europe published this week point to slightly weaker activity in September than in July or August, but it still looks like regional GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was around 3% y/y. There’s little sign (yet) from the surveys that the recent leg-up in oil prices will fuel broad-based inflation pressures, which is supportive of our view that the rise in interest rate expectations in the region may have gone too far.
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