The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of GDP a year. The tourism sector is likely to be the biggest loser, but only if the measures remain in place until the summer. And, overall, the hit to the economy may well be offset by the gains from the EU’s recent pledge of €3bn of aid to Turkey to help with the migrant crisis.
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