Lessons for 2016 from 2015

Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting the sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars and correctly predicting that the RBNZ would cut rates when most people thought the next move would be up. We anticipate that the Australian and New Zealand dollars will weaken by more than expected next year too, as both the RBA and RBNZ cut rates by more than is currently priced into the markets.