Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Household Spending Indicator (September 2026)

Household spending volumes rose at the same pace in Q3 as in the previous quarter, which suggests that consumption has yet to slow in response to weaker real income growth.

4th November 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA is probably done tightening

The RBA lifted its policy rate to an 18-year high today but noted that monetary conditions are now restrictive. We expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut, but not until the second half of next...

3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 26)

The RBA lifted its policy rate to an 18-year high today, but noted that monetary conditions are now restrictive. Accordingly, we expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut.

3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

The bond market’s troubles may be drawing to a close

We continue to think that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble will give bonds a further boost over time.

2nd November 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Tighter immigration settings a long-term downside risk

There are some early signs that tighter immigration rules are starting to reduce net migration and there’s a risk that the government will curb migrant inflows further over the coming years. With...

2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

House prices will plunge by more than 10%

Australia’s house prices have never fallen as rapidly as they have in the current downturn and we now expect them to eventually fall by more than 10% for the first time in the country’s modern history...

2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Restrictive policy will bring inflation to heel

With Australia's inflation problem proving stubborn, we expect the RBA to hike again next week. Core market services inflation has accelerated, while rising import costs for electronics threaten to...

30th October 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (October 2026)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Underlying inflation in Australia gained traction in Q3, while leading indicators suggest that it will...

29th October 2026 · 1 min read

RBA Watch

Hawkish RBA will hike again for good measure

With inflationary pressures unrelenting, the RBA will lift its cash rate by 25bp to an 18-year high of 4.85% at its November meeting. That hike will put policy settings well and truly into restrictive...

28th October 2026 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q3/Sept. 2026)

With underlying price pressures gaining traction, it looks increasingly likely that the RBA will put its foot on the brakes sooner rather than later.

28th October 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Hawkish RBA may yet hike rates again

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s hawkish comments this week have heightened the risk of another rate hike in November. Elevated energy prices, the AI investment boom and weak productivity threaten...

23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Higher neutral rate need not prompt more tightening

The evidence that the neutral rate of interest has continued to rise is mixed. And with excess demand now clearly diminishing, we’re not convinced that further monetary tightening is warranted.

19th October 2026 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Looser labour market means policy is tight enough

The RBA argued that monetary policy was only “somewhat restrictive” at its September meeting. However, the Bank’s decision to lift the cash rate further at that meeting means that policy is now more...

16th October 2026 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2026)

The clear deterioration in labour market conditions should give the RBA greater confidence that policy settings are adequately restrictive.

15th October 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Sep. 2026)

While the Board continued to strike a hawkish tone in September, we’re sticking to our view that the cash rate has already peaked.

13th October 2026 · 2 mins read