Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US mid-terms and the Iran war, Saudi budget deficit The US mid-terms and a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region have reduced the threat of a renewed escalation of the Iran war and also raised hopes that a political solution to the conflict may... 5th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf recovery remains slow and bumpy The latest activity data for the Gulf underline the sluggish nature of the economic recovery underway. And while diplomatic efforts provide hope for an end to the Iran war, there remains a significant... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (October '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a sustained return to pre-war energy exports won’t... 29th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diplomacy stepped up, IMF in Egypt, Bahrain support There has been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to avoid a renewed escalation of the Iran war. While Iran is enduring severe economic pain, regime hardliners may still be willing to... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI boom insulating Asia from the energy shock, for now Asia has proved surprisingly resilient to the energy price shock triggered by the war in Iran. Subsidies and price controls have shielded consumers from much of the increase in global energy prices... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran: will economic pain force the regime to capitulate? The US naval blockade that has now been in place for more than 100 days is imposing severe pain on Iran’s economy, with the rial tumbling and inflation at close to 90% y/y. But the extent to which... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly When is an oil risk premium a risk premium? Many commentators have attributed the recent rise in oil prices to an increase in the oil risk premium. While rising geopolitical risks have certainly contributed to the rally, attributing it all to a... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy markets are learning to live with conflict The escalation in strikes across the Middle East highlights the upside risks to oil prices. But oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have proved to be relatively resilient, and the expansion of... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Houthi attacks on Riyadh The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, threaten to set back the recovery in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy, even if the damage to the tourism sector proves to be limited. The key... 12th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi and UAE lead recovery in latest Gulf PMI data The whole economy PMIs for September show that the Gulf’s recovery is taking shape but is uneven. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are faring strongly. But recoveries in Kuwait and particularly Qatar appear... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How would a diesel export ban affect Latin America? A US diesel export ban would be particularly disruptive for Latin America as the region is reliant on the US for supply and has large diesel-intensive sectors, including road freight transport... 28th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why Dubai should bounce back The outbreak of the Iran war has threatened Dubai’s status as the Gulf’s pre-eminent financial and commercial hub, but there are already tentative signs of recovery in its economy. The pace and... 23rd September 2026 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lessons from the pipeline attack; the Fed and commodities The net impact of the recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could even feasibly result in slightly higher oil flows over time. But the bigger picture is that the oil market remains in a... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly President Xi’s US visit: What’s on the table? We doubt that next Thursday’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington will deliver any major breakthroughs that change the trajectory of US-China relations. The two leaders will discuss a... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
