Commodities Update A bigger oil demand adjustment lies ahead Global oil demand has been surprisingly resilient so far given the scale of the supply shock. But if that resilience persists and supply from the Middle East remains constrained, a sustained period of... 16th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Counting the fiscal cost to the Gulf from the Iran war The disruption to energy flows from the Iran war will cause government budget balances to improve in Oman and the UAE (high prices have more than offset the impact on export volumes). But balances... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions on the closure of the East-West pipeline The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could impact up to 4% of global oil supply and each week of the pipeline’s closure could knock up to 0.3%-pts off Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Uncertainty about... 14th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Normality on hold The recovery in energy exports from the Middle East will take longer than we previously expected and is consistent with continued draws on global oil stocks as well as a further tightening in natural... 11th September 2026 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly The good, the bad and the ugly in the oil market Reports that more crude oil has been traversing the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns about the availability of crude oil supply. Reasons for caution remain, though, as the White House's... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt at centre of US-China AI tussle, Iran-Oman deal Egypt's decision over whether to have the US or China build a data centre could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing... 27th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Perfect storm is brewing for EU natural gas prices The recent rise in EU natural gas prices to their highest level in over three years has been driven by a combination of constrained LNG supply and hot temperatures lifting demand. Against the backdrop... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response “Economic D-Day” Sanctions (Aug. 2026) The announcement of the “greatest financial offensive ever” by the US ups the ante on Iran and could widen the divide between factions in the country. But with the renewed US naval blockade already... 24th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Crack spreads nearing a peak?; gold shines; El Niño looms While we suspect that the upward pressure on oil product price spreads could soon start to ease, this does not mean that they will necessarily come back down quickly. And even if spreads stabilise... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Q2 GDP data show global economy weathering war 19th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs benefit if tourists don’t return to the Gulf? The recovery in tourism by non-GCC nationals to the Gulf remains slow. If this persists, shifting travel patterns might result in significant gains in some smaller economies in the Caribbean and the... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Why has the euro-zone economy kept growing? Data published this morning confirmed that euro-zone GDP continued to grow around its trend rate in Q2, despite a sharp rise in energy prices. We forecast that the energy import bill will fall back in... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
