East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election

The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy at the same time that the central bank is raising interest rates in line with the Fed. Elsewhere, Morocco’s parliamentary election takes place on Wednesday against the backdrop of growing demands for greater social welfare provision. Although the public finances have improved in recent years, permanently higher spending would create medium-term fiscal risks.