Japan Economics Weekly

RENGO pushing for another large Shunto pay hike

With the energy cost shock barely making a dent in Japan's trade balance and corporate profits going from strength to strength, trade unions are demanding another strong pay hike in next year's spring...

23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Risks to our interest rate forecasts shifting to the upside

The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting but will signal continued concerns about upside risks to inflation. With little evidence that the tightening delivered so...

23rd October 2026 · 8 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Oct. 2026)

Strong AI-related investment and resilient consumption should cause GDP growth to rebound in the third quarter and maintain a growth rate of about 2.5% in the coming year. Despite the recent slowdown...

22nd October 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (October 2026)

Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well and we expect regional growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on...

22nd October 2026 · 1 min read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Oct. 2026)

After a very strong run, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth is still on course to average an impressive 7% from 2026-2028. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon will push...

22nd October 2026 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision

Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political...

22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end

We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final...

22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Jackdaw will have little macroeconomic impact

The UK government’s decision to allow production at the Jackdaw North Sea gas field is unlikely to have a material impact on the UK economy. It should provide a modest boost to domestic gas production...

21st October 2026 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

GDP pick-up belies weaker domestic demand

Official GDP growth picked up in Q3, but the improvement masks a further weakening in domestic demand. The detailed breakdown suggests that last quarter’s rebound was driven entirely by net exports...

21st October 2026 · 4 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (October 2026)

Growth in the region appears to have weakened sharply in Q3 and, if anything, the risks to our below-consensus forecasts may now lie to the downside. High inflation across the region limits the extent...

20th October 2026 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma

The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between firms surveyed before and after new tariffs were...

19th October 2026 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2026)

The improvement in official GDP growth last quarter is at odds with the slowdown shown by our China Activity Proxy (CAP). But the September data do suggest that the economy regained momentum at the...

19th October 2026 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Impacts of renewed trade war mixed so far

The recent downturn in the manufacturing sector is not entirely attributable to the US' new Section 338 tariffs, though timelier data on new orders suggest there could be more downside yet to be felt.

16th October 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Global headwinds threaten UK’s economic resilience

While the economy has shown remarkable resilience to higher energy prices and borrowing costs so far this year, we still think the coming rise in inflation will lead to an easing in GDP growth from 1...

16th October 2026 · 8 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Industrial Production (Sep. 2026)

The rebound in manufacturing output in September will ease jitters around August’s unexpected fall. While the strength of the AI buildout looks to be masking weakness in other areas feeling the bite...

16th October 2026 · 2 mins read