Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria & Angola pick up, S. Africa Q2 data to disappoint The strength of the Q2 GDP figures out of Nigeria and Angola this week has prompted us to revise up our 2026 growth forecasts for both economies. But while Nigeria’s economy is likely to strengthen... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global developments dampen PM’s policy ambitions The latest rises in gilt yields and UK market interest rate expectations have reduced Chancellor Healey’s headroom against his main fiscal rule from £23.6bn in March to around £15.0bn. And higher... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: export boom starting to feed stronger investment Monthly data published for Korea this week provide encouraging evidence that the export bonanza is beginning to feed through into stronger investment. 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2026) The fall in euro-zone retail sales in July was the largest monthly decline in over a year and suggests that consumption made a weak start to Q3 following what looks like a decent rise in Q2. 4th September 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly GDP data spark controversy but will comfort the RBI India’s stronger-than-expected GDP data for Q2 have sparked a row among politicians over the reliability of the figures. But the numbers as well as broader activity indicators point to resilience -... 4th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese firms continue to weather energy shock The Japanese economy has continued to shrug off the energy shock. Corporate profit margins rose to a record high in Q2, while industrial production held up well in July as supply shortages eased. That... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this month With the economy still growing around trend and trimmed mean inflation showing no signs of slowing, the upside risks to inflation that the RBA has been worried are starting to crystallise. We now... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug 2026) The rise in the ISM services index in August suggests that the prior strength in July was not only due to temporary effects from the FIFA World Cup, and leaves our weighted-average ISM index... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Recovery in the Gulf strengthens The whole economy PMIs for August, released today, suggest that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors is taking hold. The UAE and Kuwait saw the strongest increases, and non-oil activity in Saudi... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) With inflation and the resulting drag on households’ real incomes yet to peak, we doubt the surprising resilience of activity in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of this... 3rd September 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ tones down its hawkish bias a touch The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates as expected, but struck a more balanced tone on the risks to its outlook. Although another hike this year seems likely, we continue to expect the OCR to... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 26) With GDP growth and inflation holding up better than the RBA had anticipated, the Bank will probably hike rates again before long, perhaps as soon as this month. 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A bumpy and uneven Q3 for EM manufacturing The small rise in the emerging market manufacturing PMI in August looks encouraging, but masks the fact that the surveys declined in most EMs last month. Encouragingly, the prices components remained... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Aug 2026) The ISM Manufacturing survey pours some cold water on the idea that the manufacturing sector is beginning to boom, but it does at least remain consistent with growing output. The commentary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
