Latin America Economics Update Q3 slump strengthens the case for below-consensus growth The latest data point to an abrupt drop in activity in Latin America, only partly offset by strength in Mexico and Peru. While we don’t think this weakness will last, the carryover from a weak Q3 as... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth starting to recover Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in September as the drag from summer typhoons eased. But growth remains weak by recent standards and increasingly reliant on external demand... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s election points to political limbo The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch Hawkish RBA will hike again for good measure With inflationary pressures unrelenting, the RBA will lift its cash rate by 25bp to an 18-year high of 4.85% at its November meeting. That hike will put policy settings well and truly into restrictive... 28th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still on course to tighten a bit further The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today was finely balanced and the Committee signalled that further tightening remained likely. That said, the Bank’s cautious approach supports our view that... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s brain drain is harming its economic potential Malaysia’s brain drain is a longstanding challenge to its ambition to become a high-income economy. A large diaspora, much of it concentrated in Singapore, includes a significant number of skilled... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran: will economic pain force the regime to capitulate? The US naval blockade that has now been in place for more than 100 days is imposing severe pain on Iran’s economy, with the rial tumbling and inflation at close to 90% y/y. But the extent to which... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: strong, but unbalanced growth Korea recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q3, once again supported by robust export growth. Investment also picked up, but private consumption remained weak. We expect growth to remain... 27th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) GDP growth looks to have lost some momentum in the third quarter, and headwinds from new tariffs and ongoing CUSMA uncertainty will weigh on activity over the next few quarters. While most measures of... 26th October 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (October) The small increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October supports our view that, after stalling in Q3, the economy will return to growth in Q4. That said, the discrepancy between... 26th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s shock victory to cause Brazilian markets to tumble Lula’s surprise win in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election will dash hopes for reforms that would improve the public finances and strengthen growth prospects. A sharp fall in the real... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s credit risk, regional slowdown, Brazil votes The rise in Argentina’s country risk premium continued this week and seems to reflect concerns about Milei’s re-election prospects next year. The country’s recent history provides reasons to think... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The broad-based rise in retail sales in August largely reflects a rebound from July rather than a genuine strengthening in consumer demand, though there were still signs in the data that households... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2026) The rise in the composite activity PMI in October to its highest level since the Iran war started suggests that activity, outside of the retail sector at least, is still pretty good. This will further... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2026) Although the euro-zone’s composite PMI fell in October, it remains consistent with modest positive growth, suggesting that the economy has remained resilient in the face of the energy shock. And while... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
