India Economics Update AI, the data centre build out and India’s economy Much of the discourse on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on India’s economy is framed around the disruption to the services sector, but AI also requires a large amount of investment in... 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2026) Inflation pressures softening, albeit slowly The fall in both the ISM services and manufacturing prices paid indices in June brings our weighted index across the two sectors to a four-month low of 69... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Will Germany's reform plans spark an economic recovery? 16th July 2026, 3:00PM BST A series of tax, pension and labour market reforms has raised hopes that Germany's new government is finally tackling the structural problems holding back the economy.
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates: too much caution now priced in? Strong GDP growth and rising inflation have raised the bar for further interest rate cuts in Brazil, and we expect a pause in the cycle later this year, with just one or two more 25bp cuts over the... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus AI and the UK Economy: Early signs, bigger gains ahead AI is starting to influence the economy, but so far this has been confined to a few sectors and been too small to show up in overall GDP, investment, employment or productivity. But if we’re right in... 6th July 2026 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2026) May’s increase in euro-zone retail sales volumes shows that consumers kept on spending despite the drop in confidence and real incomes in Q2. It also reinforces our view that the impact of the jump in... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Deal or no deal, trade with the US will remain seismic The lack of agreement to renew CUSMA will change little for trade with the US in the near term. And, even if the US were to withdraw, deep historical integration and lower tariffs post-IEEPA make it... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s new finance chief, USMCA, Brazil’s growth The nomination of Miguel Gómez Martínez as Colombia's next finance minister points to a much tighter fiscal stance when President-elect de la Espriella takes power. This should also help to quell... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB interest rates & required reserves; EU-China trade The huge decline in energy prices over the past two months, together with June's HICP data, suggest that euro-zone inflation will be even lower in the near term than in the ECB's "milder scenario"... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Immigration to continue driving Spain’s outperformance The scale of Spain's migrant regularisation scheme, for which 1.2 million people have applied, highlights the role that immigration is playing in Spain’s economic outperformance. We expect continued... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak monsoon impact not only limited to agriculture India has just recorded its driest June in over a decade and that may prove a harbinger for the rest of the monsoon season on account of El Niño weather conditions. Deficient rain is already affecting... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Capacity pressures to persist despite housing weakness This week’s data will likely have reinforced the RBA’s view that tighter financial conditions are weighing on the housing market. But we doubt that housing wealth effects will push consumption much... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will have to respond to stronger inflation The latest Tankan survey showed that output prices hit a record high, driven by the influence of higher energy costs on upstream industries. While higher input costs will be passed on to consumers... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
