US Economics Weekly A month of soft inflation won’t assuage Fed’s concerns The softer-than-expected June CPI and PPI prints don't change the fact that price pressures remain elevated. Accordingly, we're sticking with our view that the Fed will hike interest rates as soon as... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Venezuela not yet eating Canada’s oil lunch The renewed rise in oil prices is positive news for Canada’s oil sector, but the latest US import data highlight the longer-term risks from greater Venezuelan production. 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine joy, oil price jump, Brazil tariffs The US's announcement of a 25% Section 301 US import tariff on Brazil made a splash this week, but the macroeconomic effect is likely to limited. Meanwhile, the renewed rise in oil prices would - if... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jun. 2026) Despite the unchanged reading in June, second-quarter manufacturing output expanded at a solid 4.7% annualised pace, supported by booming production of hi-tech inputs for the AI buildout. The recent... 17th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy still growing despite Iran war Euro-zone GDP (excluding Ireland) rose by 0.3% in Q1 and the latest official activity data point to a similar performance in Q2. Meanwhile, suggestions that European policymakers should engineer a... 17th July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Burnham inherits economic resilience that won’t last The recent resilience of the UK economy is unlikely to last in the second half of the year when the full effects of higher energy prices are felt. Further ahead, Andy Burnham is unlikely to achieve a... 17th July 2026 · 10 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Where next for interest rates? 30th July 2026, 3:00PM BST Amid renewed fighting in the Middle East and volatile energy prices, policymakers are grappling with inflation risks that have by no means receded.
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s optimism will be put to the test The recent pick-up in crude oil prices vindicates the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation. To be sure, the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz could prompt the Bank to flag... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update AI is now the main driver of China’s growth While headline growth disappointed, the detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data points to a sharp upswing in activity linked to the AI boom. On a q/q basis, over half of last quarter’s expansion... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in May is not a bad welcome gift for incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham as it suggests the economy may have grown by around 0.4% q/q in Q2. But with higher energy... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growth Andy Burnham is unlikely to significantly boost the economy’s sustainable growth rate, partly because it is hard to do and he’s unlikely to have long to do it, but also because his diagnosis of the... 15th July 2026 · 15 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (May 2026) The rise in manufacturing sales in May was accompanied by a surge in new and unfilled orders, confirming that the sector remains in a cyclical upswing despite punitive US sector-specific tariffs. 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update The euro-zone’s “K-shaped” industry Industrial production has held up well since the Iran war began and output in the most energy-intensive sectors has risen. The bigger picture is that industry is in structural decline, but its... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
