Capital Daily What China’s GDP “miss” means for its markets China’s weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP isn’t reason, in our view, to throw in the towel on its markets: we remain fairly positive on the country’s equities, bonds, and currency. 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2026) The official GDP figures showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q2, bringing them closer in line with our China Activity Proxy (CAP). This may largely represent a greater willingness to... 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Data centre boom making the RBA’s job harder Australia’s data centre boom has yet to generate a broad-based inflationary impulse. But by adding demand to an already stretched construction sector, it risks prolonging capacity constraints and... 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality? 21st July 2026, 2:00PM BST From "the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war period" to "the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen", Andy Burnham, the UK's next Prime Minister, has proclaimed a
Japan Economics Update AI boom will only provide small boost to inflation Japan’s economy isn’t benefitting much from the surge in demand related to artificial intelligence. While higher electronics import prices should result in faster price increases for household... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA Treasury cuts off municipalities, Nigeria’s oil output South Africa’s municipal funding freezes this week signal the Treasury’s commitment to fiscal discipline, but risks hurting the ANC’s electoral appeal ahead of November's critical local elections. In... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound in energy prices not yet a major worry The rebound in energy prices following the breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire is not big enough to change our view that the ECB has probably finished its hiking “cycle”. Meanwhile, we think President... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tentative housing recovery a positive sign for wider economy We still think CPI inflation will rise from 2.8% in May to a peak of around 3.5% in early 2027 and that the resulting drag on real activity has yet to come. But tentative signs of a turnaround in the... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MoU on the rocks, Saudi-UAE tensions, Egypt state control The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has come under further strain this week, raising the risk that the recovery in the Gulf economies gets derailed. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between Saudi... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle will be gradual The RBNZ’s decision to kick off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today came as little surprise. While the Bank made clear that further increases are likely, its emphasis on returning policy only... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (May 2026) Surge in trade surplus entirely down to price effects The further improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance to a four-year high was not as good as it looks, as total export volumes were essentially... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s medium-term prospects brightening The fallout from the energy shock will delay but not derail a cyclical recovery in South Africa. Growth is likely to accelerate more than most expect in 2027-28 and this will be accompanied by a much... 7th July 2026 · 14 mins read
