Capital Daily Markets back under pressure, and relief may be uneven Inflation – and central banks’ response to it – may continue to be a thorn in the side of the bond market for a while. But, there’s still limited evidence in markets of runaway inflation expectations... 8th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crazy Irish GDP numbers; “ethical” US tariffs? We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB unlikely to raise interest rates very far A 25bp rate hike next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, looks nailed on and we suspect that will be followed by another in July. But second-round effects of higher energy prices on inflation... 4th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2026) Prime office values continued to grow strongly in Q1, in contrast to a further slowdown in the retail and industrial sectors. These two sectors are also more vulnerable to the impacts of the Iran war... 3rd June 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank lending likely to slow soon Lending by euro-zone banks held up well in the first two months after the Iran war began. But with confidence low, market interest rates rising and the ECB set to start tightening monetary policy next... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Despite short-term challenges, leisure set to bounce back With consumers cutting back discretionary spending as real incomes come under pressure, demand for leisure assets will be subdued over the next year or so. But longer term the future for the sector... 29th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big is the fiscal cost of the Iran conflict? Since the outbreak of the Iran war we have increased our forecast for the aggregate euro-zone fiscal deficit this year from around 3% to 3.5% of GDP. Increased borrowing is not a major worry for... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe gradually getting tougher on China Today’s gathering of European Commissioners will prepare the ground for a further tightening of European trade defences against China. However, differences of opinion between European governments and... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (May 2026) The national HICP data for May suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged up from 3.0% in April to 3.1%. If oil and natural gas prices remain around current levels or fall back, energy inflation... 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy growing slowly but jobs market will remain tight Italy’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since the mid-1970s, but recent declines have been driven by young people leaving the labour force rather than rising employment. Even if the... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2026) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 as the Iran war pushed alternative asset yields higher. Looking ahead, valuations could worsen further and property yields could come under upward... 28th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) Although the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose slightly in May and selling price expectations fell back a touch, the big picture is unchanged: the euro-zone has suffered a significant... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
