Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Jul.) July’s fall in euro-zone exports is another sign that GDP growth will weaken in Q3 after Q2’s strong expansion. And with exports set to slow further in the months ahead, a consumer revival would be... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB's unconventional support is still crucial The recent pick-up in ECB bond purchases has been very small when compared to earlier acquisitions or to the size of the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, its lending to commercial banks in the region as... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Sep.), EZ Ind. Prod'n (Jul.) & Labour Costs (Q2) The drop in German ZEW economic sentiment in September and July’s stagnation in euro-zone industrial production confirm that the euro-zone recovery is slowing again after Q2’s strong expansion. 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB more upbeat, but maintains policy support While the ECB struck a slightly more upbeat tone towards the economy at today’s press conference, it nonetheless maintained its support for the region’s banking sector and remains a long way from... 2nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) The second release relating to Q2 euro-zone GDP gives a fairly encouraging picture, but does not alter our view that the recovery will soon falter. 2nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small fall in euro-zone CPI inflation confirmed that price pressures in the region are very subdued. And although unemployment has continued to edge down, this is unlikely to prompt any... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still pretty downbeat despite a strong Q2 The ECB is likely to maintain a very dovish stance at the forthcoming meeting. Admittedly, recent positive data might have led the Bank to revise up its growth forecast for 2010. But the slowdown in... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The latest money figures add to evidence that annual credit growth is picking up. But with credit conditions still tight and many peripheral banks still looking vulnerable, the ECB will need to... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does the euro-zone cycle lag behind that in the US? The euro-zone’s relative resilience has prompted some optimism lately, but note that the region’s business cycle typically lags behind that of the US. Euro-zone growth will almost certainly follow... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the recovery is now beginning to slow alongside those of other major economies. But the index points to pretty strong GDP growth for the time... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Export recovery to slow before long Recent encouraging news on the euro-zone has prompted us to revise up our 2010 GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 1.5%. But the recovery is still heavily reliant on German exporters and the outlook for... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Two-speed euro-zone still on shaky ground Q2’s GDP figures highlighted huge divergences within the euro-zone. We have revised up our growth forecast for this year, but this is entirely down to a better performance by Germany. And with... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update GDP data flatter the euro-zone occupier market outlook The surprisingly strong rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 2010 is probably less supportive for occupier markets than it appears at first sight. For a start, the region remains vulnerable to a slowdown in... 13th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP figures confirm that the euro-zone performed surprisingly well, both by its own and international standards. But the recovery remains dependent on exports from the core economies, which look... 13th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) Despite a small drop in production in June, the industrial sector remains the eurozone’s main engine of growth. But there remain stark divergences in industrial performance within the region. 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could a weaker euro save the euro-zone? A sharp drop in the euro exchange rate might seem like the answer to all of the currency unions problems. But while it might boost the core economies exports, it would do little to help the troubled... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
