Europe Economics Weekly Recovery slowing as peripheral woes deepen This week has seen worries about the euro-zone’s periphery escalate again, with Ireland in the spotlight. While the gradually emerging details of a permanent “crisis resolution mechanism” have helped... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The slowdown in euro-zone GDP in the third quarter will do little to ease growing fears about the region’s periphery. The 0.4% quarterly expansion was a touch weaker than the consensus forecast and... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro defying gravity? The euro’s further rise certainly has not supported our forecast that it might eventually fall to parity against the dollar. The worries about peripheral debt that we had expected to drive the... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to join the party After leaving interest rates on hold today, the ECB signalled that it is certainly not ready to follow the Fed into a renewed bout of unconventional policy support. Bolder action might yet be taken... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone default mechanism poses near-term risks Proposed arrangements for a permanent crisis resolution mechanism in the euro-zone threaten to have counter-productive effects on member countries’ fiscal consolidation efforts. 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial recovery still going strong for now Recent news from the euro-zone industrial sector has provided some encouraging signs that, for now at least, output is merely starting to grow at a more sustainable rate, rather than grinding to a... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data attest to the absence of price pressures in the region. As inflation drops back next year, we think the ECB is more likely to up its unconventional... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Recovery in euro-zone investment volumes is faltering (Q4 10) The recovery in European commercial property investment volumes seen since early 2009 seems to have reached a plateau. Although euro-zone property assets still look relatively attractively priced... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s improvement in the EC consumer and business survey and fall in German unemployment suggest that the euro-zone is holding up well for now. But the worrying divergence between core and... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's tightening bias should not last long Recent comments from ECB members, together with a reduction in its bank lending and halt to bond purchases, suggest that the Bank has maintained a tightening bias. It will probably keep open the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a break-up of the euro help or hinder recovery? The long-term effects of some form of break-up of the euro-zone might ultimately prove to be positive. But the likely short-term damage means that such an event would hinder, rather than help, the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest euro-zone broad money and credit data provide further signs that the problems in the banking sector may be easing. Nonetheless, credit growth remains very weak and supports our view that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still battling to achieve fiscal stability Last week was characterised by fairly downbeat news on economic activity and ongoing struggles to achieve fiscal goals. Although the German business surveys remained positive, October’s fall in the... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why even Germany needs ECB support Some reporters have put recent hawkish remarks by Axel Weber, the Bundesbank’s ECB representative, down to the relative strength of the German economy. But even there, the economic outlook warrants... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is stalling and that the external revival is failing to boost domestic spending. 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Housing revival unlikely to drive a consumer recovery There are early signs of a revival in euro-zone housing markets. Even in the periphery, the housing market seems to have passed its worst, which on the face of it, may provide some relief to consumers... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
