Europe Economics Weekly Recovery continues, but fiscal squeeze looms On the face of it, the latest news on the euro-zone economy has been reasonably encouraging, suggesting that the recovery has continued despite the fiscal crisis. National data point to another... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB maintains a dovish stance The ECB maintained a supportive stance today, treating signs of an economic recovery with caution. While the Bank seems unlikely to resort to outright quantitative easing for now, sterilised bond... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone banks back in the spotlight The past week’s data have added to concerns that strains in the region’s periphery are spreading to broader economic activity. While business sentiment remains consistent with a continued recovery for... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q1 confirms that domestic spending remains weak and with fiscal tightening set to intensify, there is little prospect of an improvement any time soon. 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMI (May) April’s drop in euro-zone retail sales brought more worrying evidence of the weakness of the consumer sector even before fiscal tightening really kicks in. 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Resisting full-blown QE... for now After making radical changes to unconventional policy just a few weeks ago, further alterations seem unlikely this month. The ECB will give little away about the size and type of future bond purchases... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone PPI (Apr.)/Spanish Unemp. & Con. Conf. (May) April’s sharp rise in euro-zone producer price inflation may prompt concerns that inflationary pressures are building. But we continue to think that deflation, rather than a surge in inflation is the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone & German Unemployment (Apr./May) April’s further rise in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that domestic demand in the region looks set to remain weak. 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets' gloom could soon hit households and firms Recent market developments, coupled with the prospect of a prolonged bout of fiscal consolidation, appear to be starting to have a damaging impact on confidence in the wider euro-zone economy. In the... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will fiscal union save the euro-zone? The recent rescue package along with rulings made by the European Commission might be steps towards euro-zone fiscal integration that could feasibly benefit the region’s economies in the long run. But... 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How does Estonia stack up against the euro-zone? Estonia’s low level of public debt sets it apart from the heavily indebted countries on the periphery of the euro-zone. But the country has seen a much bigger erosion of its competitive position over... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker euro unlikely to solve the region’s woes On the face of it, the recent weakening of the euro should provide the euro-zone’s external sector with a boost over the coming months. But given that exporters have tended previously to respond to a... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (May) May’s falls in the euro-zone PMI and German Ifo business surveys are slightly worrying signs, but both still point to pretty strong growth for the time being. 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May), EZ CPI (Apr.) & Trade (Mar.) May’s renewed decline in the ZEW index suggests that investors are still very worried about the effect of the periphery’s problems on the German economy. 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What to make of the ECB’s bond purchases Fears that the ECBs bond purchases will stoke inflation or encourage fiscal laxity are overblown. They do not constitute full-blown quantitative easing and will not allow euro-zone economies to escape... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro heading for parity While some of the forces bearing down on the euro over recent months may now be easing, there are plenty of other reasons to expect the currency to fall further. Indeed, our forecast that the euro... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
