Global Markets Update Would euro-zone equities benefit from QE? The European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to announce a quantitative easing (QE) programme at its next policy meeting. However, we doubt that it would provide a large boost to euro-zone equities. The... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in November to another record high encouragingly reflected a small rise in exports rather than the weakness of imports, suggesting that exporters are... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small increase in euro-zone industrial production in November suggests that industry may well have fared better in Q4. But it does little to alter the picture of widespread weakness in the region... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price and euro not all good for periphery The recent sharp drop in both the price of crude oil and the value of the euro should have some positive effect on euro-zone economic output. We think that, on balance, the peripheral countries should... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in November, but fiscal consolidation is doing little to tackle debt ratios in some countries and they may only get worse if the euro-zone... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone deflation be good or bad? A bout of negative inflation could have some positive effects on the euro-zone economy by boosting real incomes and spending power. But the adverse effects on inflation expectations and peripheral... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why worry about deflation? The slump in the oil price means that headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the coming months in many advanced economies, just as it already has in the euro-zone. In general, deflation in... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Unemployment (Nov.) December’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation into negative territory could herald the start of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation in the currency union, which may in turn threaten to re-ignite... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro weakness set to be sustained Recent strong downward pressure on the euro exchange rate might ease in the very near term. But further ahead, poor euro-zone growth, the implementation of quantitative easing and fears for the region... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to December’s euro-zone PMI added to signs that the economy is barely expanding. And with the price indices highlighting the threat of deflation, the ECB remains under intense... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the ECB finance a euro-zone investment fund? The idea that the ECB should finance a euro-zone investment fund instead of buying assets through a conventional quantitative easing programme has several potential benefits. But the scheme probably... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Russian crisis push the euro-zone into recession? The euro-zone’s direct trade and financial links with Russia are relatively weak. Nonetheless, even a modest negative impact at a time when the region is already facing renewed internal problems could... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to the euro? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme appears unlikely to be big enough to push the euro down sharply. But the prospect of continued stagnation in the economy and impending monetary tightening... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s sharp rise in German ZEW investor sentiment is an encouraging sign that confidence has so far not been hit by renewed problems in Greece, but the improvement is at odds with the weakness of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
