Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s flash euro-zone PMI survey suggested that the euro-zone economy probably lost steam in the fourth quarter and maintained the pressure on the ECB to deliver a major policy boost at its next... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would prolonged deflation affect euro-zone equities? It is tempting to think that a prolonged period of mild deflation in the euro-zone would be terrible news for equities. After all, Japan’s stock market generally fared poorly for much of the time... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis and falling oil price strengthen case for QE We disagree with speculation that the resurgence of the Greek crisis and the fall in the oil price have reduced the chance of quantitative easing. Indeed, we think that both factors have increased the... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must deliver on QE to push euro lower The rise in the euro during the ECB’s press conference last week apparently reflected disappointment that President Draghi did not provide more explicit signals that quantitative easing (QE) is coming... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q3 offered little encouragement that the region’s lacklustre economic recovery is about to pick up any meaningful momentum. 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update QE is coming, but it won’t revive the euro-zone ECB President Mario Draghi could hardly have sent clearer signals today that the central bank will launch a programme of quantitative easing very soon, probably in January. But we doubt that the... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can QE revive the euro-zone? The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to launch a full-blown quantitative easing (QE) programme this week or in January. But the political and economic limitations on the policy’s size and effects... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) November’s final composite PMI was revised down from the flash estimate and provided more evidence that the euro-zone economy has remained weak in Q4. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in October, but Portugal is expected to miss its target for 2014 as a whole. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for it? The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB, BoJ and People’s Bank to loosen policy further Three of the world’s most powerful central banks have loosened monetary policy in some form in the past few weeks and they all look likely to do more next year, particularly given the recent slump in... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB to join Bank of Japan in full-blown QE Although the Fed ended its asset purchases in October, and is set to start raising policy rates in the coming months, global monetary conditions will remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ undertake... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the euro fallen far enough? The fall in the euro since the spring looks likely to have at least some upward effect on both the growth of euro-zone exports and the level of euro-zone consumer price inflation. But the ECB should... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE’s coming, probably in January It seems clear that the ECB will soon embark on a full-blown quantitative easing programme incorporating sovereign debt purchases. The key questions now are when and how big? While we think that the... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
