Europe Economics Weekly Greece still hanging by a thread While there have been few firm developments in the ongoing Greek crisis in recent weeks, the general news on the progress towards plugging the country’s short-term financing hole and finding a lasting... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade & Construction (Jan.) January’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the region’s exports are still not benefitting substantially from the weakness of the euro. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB QE should be a net positive for rest of the world Concerns about the possible negative side effects for the rest of the world from QE by the ECB look overdone. Admittedly, the appreciation of other currencies against the euro will be a headwind for... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Mar.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q4) March’s modest rise in the ZEW investor sentiment index suggests that hopes for the German economy have been tempered by worries over the effects of the Greek crisis. 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is growth in the euro-zone about to outpace that in the US? Some indicators suggest that the euro-zone economy may grow faster than the US in Q1. But this is largely because unusually severe weather has hit US activity. While the euro-zone economy has gained... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s euro-zone industrial production data suggested that industry had a poor start to 2015, with little evidence of a boost from the weaker euro or lower oil prices. 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How low will the euro go? Rising expectations for US interest rates and an escalation of the Greek crisis could push the euro down to parity against the US dollar and beyond. But we expect it to stage a partial recovery in... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Real rates to stay higher in the euro-zone than in US & Japan The ECB started its quantitative easing programme this week and the US Fed is likely to begin tightening policy in June. Nonetheless, we expect real interest rates to remain higher in the euro-zone... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will QE hit the buffers before the job is done? Concerns that the ECB will struggle to find enough willing sellers of assets to implement its quantitative easing programme may be wide of the mark. But limits set by the Bank itself imply little... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone sovereign credit spreads grind even lower? The yield spreads of 10-year Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds recently fell below 100bp for the first time since 2010. Given their grind lower since the summer of 2012, it is... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Start of ECB QE won’t herald strong recovery As the ECB’s quantitative easing programme starts today, it already seems to be having a more positive impact than we had envisaged. But here we explain why we maintain our view that the policy will... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q4 confirmed that the region’s recovery remained very weak at the end of last year but provided some tentative signs that it is becoming better... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaves onus on politicians to rescue Greece While ECB President Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone today, we doubt that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme will prompt a meaningful economic recovery or eradicate the threat of... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
