Europe Economics Weekly Early signs that activity might be falling The recent increase in virus cases across the euro-zone has been concentrated among younger people than in the first wave of the crisis, so it is putting less pressure on public health systems and... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) The fall back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August suggests that the initial V-shaped rebound following the lifting of the lockdowns is already fizzling out. We suspect that activity will remain... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail property values move sharply lower Investment and occupier demand plunged further in Q2. As expected, the retail sector bore the brunt of the impact, with capital values falling by almost 9% y/y. This drove down all-property capital... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (July) July’s jump in euro-zone core inflation was entirely due to delayed summer sales, so it should reverse in August now that those sales have begun. Meanwhile, social distancing rules appear to have had... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave likely to be a drag rather than a disaster Virus numbers have risen sharply in the past month, but the second wave has different characteristics from the first. It is concentrated in younger people, so hospitals are not being put under such... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound phase coming to an end It seems increasingly likely that the rebound phase in the euro-zone is coming to an end. There is a bit more room for industrial production to rise in July, but not much beyond that, while retail... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone GDP was unchanged in today’s release, but new data showed that the variation between countries was, if anything, larger than previously thought, while there was a... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Mounting cost of ST work puts governments in a bind Short-time working has been widely used during the pandemic to stop unemployment soaring. But even with financial help from Brussels, the mounting costs will force the more fiscally constrained... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) The second successive chunky increase in industrial output in June left it a long way below normal. Output will have risen more slowly in July, and we expect it to stay subdued during the next two... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy recovering well, but second wave fears grow Official data for June show that the euro-zone economy was recovering from the lockdowns at a decent pace at the end of Q2 and business surveys for July point to this continuing at the start of Q3... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least... 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Growing risk of a second wave The economy is set to rebound strongly in the current quarter after its 12% slump in Q2, even if there is no further increase in GDP in August and September. Indeed, some of the high frequency data... 6th August 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) & Final PMIs (July) Euro-zone retail sales reached their pre-crisis level in June and July’s final PMIs confirmed that the broader recovery continued at the start of Q3. But other parts of the economy won’t have... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Examining the outlook for key equity indices in the euro-zone We suspect that MSCI’s index of German equities will stop outperforming its indices of equities in other major euro-zone countries in the coming months, even if the economy holds up better in Germany... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data highlight divergence across the euro-zone The economic data published this week confirm that euro-zone member states have had very different experiences of the virus so far. This is likely to continue, with Germany outperforming and Spain... 31st July 2020 · 7 mins read
