Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (May) Consumer confidence rose slightly in May, suggesting that households are a little less depressed about their prospects and the wider economic outlook than they were in April. Nonetheless, the index... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Will government debt be sustainable after the crisis? Public debt ratios are set to rise sharply in all euro-zone countries this year but in most cases they should then start to fall again. The exceptions are Greece and, more importantly, Italy where we... 20th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Apr.) We suspect that harvesting and supply issues rather than stockpiling caused the increase in food inflation in April, and that these effects will persist in the summer. Nonetheless, with core inflation... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Larger hit to values yet to come Prime euro-zone rents and yields held broadly steady in Q1, with many agents noting it was not possible to provide a robust reassessment of values. This marked the end of period of positive rental... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB could own 40% of Italian gov’t bonds by year end We think that the ECB could end this year owning 40% or more of the government bond markets in Italy, Spain and Greece. That would help to cap bond yields this year, but it could create serious legal... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Easing of lockdowns won’t prevent dire Q2 Official data published this week provided further confirmation of how badly the lockdowns hit economic activity in the euro-zone at the tail end of Q1. But governments are now lifting their... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Goods Trade (Mar.) Euro-zone trade values fell sharply in March, and more open economies will suffer most from the drop in global demand. But the stringency and duration of virus containment measures will be a more... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The Q1 GDP data confirm that virus containment measures have caused much bigger declines in activity in some euro-zone countries than in others. Over the rest of the year, we think that there will be... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about short-time work schemes Wage subsidy schemes in place throughout the euro-zone have so far been effective at preventing a surge in unemployment. In this Update, we answer five questions about how these schemes will evolve as... 14th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) The slump in euro-zone industrial output in March came as no surprise given the extremely weak national data already published. Worse is to come in April before the sector begins to gradually recover. 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Courts try to stall the ECB as gov’ts ease off the brakes This week’s ruling from the German constitutional court won’t stop the ECB from ramping up its asset purchases this year, but it may be a sign of much bigger problems further down the line. Meanwhile... 7th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Past the worst, but recovery slow and bumpy Governments have taken their first steps towards lifting the restrictions which caused the economy to collapse in the past few weeks. As a result, high frequency indicators show some people returning... 6th May 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) Euro-zone retail sales plummeted in March and the PMIs fell to new record lows in April. Output should pick up again now that containment measures are being lifted, but it will remain very low for a... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling highlights future risks to the euro The German constitutional court ruling today will not bring the ECB’s asset purchase programme to a sudden end. But it highlights that a successful legal challenge to the its policies in the future... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Unemployment lower, inflation higher than expected At the end of a data-heavy week, we have learnt that the euro-zone economy slumped as much as expected in Q1, but unemployment rose much less than anticipated in March. Meanwhile, the highlights of... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German offices likely to outperform rest of euro-zone As Germany cautiously eases its lockdown, despite the significant hit to economic activity, the tight supply picture should help support prime office rents across the four main cities this year. 1st May 2020 · 3 mins read
