Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (August) The small rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate in August suggests that the winding back of short-time work schemes is already starting to take its toll on the region’s labour market. With... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde points to dovish strategy conclusions President Lagarde’s speech today suggests that she will argue for a higher, symmetric inflation target and a move towards a form of average inflation targeting as part of the ECB’s strategy review... 30th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Sep.) The small improvement in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for September was slightly better than anticipated. However, the index remained at a low level, and we suspect that it has not accurately... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bankruptcy phoney war coming to an end Having instructed many firms to cease trading during the lockdowns, governments understandably pulled out all the stops to prevent them from going under. However, we expect this support to be... 28th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone avoid a labour market “cliff edge”? Short-time work schemes are not being used as much as they were in the spring, but they still account for about 5% of the labour force. So as euro-zone governments reduce support for jobs (in the way... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services activity falling as virus rules are tightened This week brought evidence that the economic recovery is grinding to a halt and that activity in the services sector is falling. And with the stringency of virus containment measures only going in one... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The surge in lending growth during and immediately after lockdowns is well and truly over. But with the authorities tightening virus containment measures again and signs that the economic recovery is... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to cut interest rates on TLTROs again Some policymakers at the ECB have hinted recently that further policy loosening could be on the way. There is little to be gained from announcing an expansion to QE at this stage, but we wouldn’t be... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave a growing threat to the recovery The number of confirmed virus cases in the euro-zone has continued to increase rapidly in recent weeks and poses a growing threat to the economic recovery. Some countries, including Italy and Germany... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to the evidence that the initial rebound in activity has already run out of steam. And with new restrictions being imposed... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Even though virus cases are rising sharply and restrictions are being tightened, euro-zone consumer confidence rose in September. But we doubt this will be sustained. Further restrictions are being... 22nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower recovery in values given weaker office outlook As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so... 18th September 2020 · 33 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risk of inflation lower in the euro-zone than elsewhere If it is sustained for long enough, the policy stimulus being implemented in the euro-zone could eventually cause inflation to take off. However, we think it is more likely that policy is normalised... 17th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Aug.) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low in August and we suspect that it will fall even further in September. Looking ahead, underlying price pressures are likely to remain weak. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish property prices set to fall back, not tumble The weak economic outlook has put the spotlight back on Spain’s property market. House price inflation was already slowing prior to the virus. But a big collapse in prices seems unlikely given that... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The jump in nominal hourly labour costs growth in Q2 is hardly a sign of a healthy labour market as total hours worked slumped by even more than employee compensation. The pick-up in activity since... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
