Europe Economics Update Five key areas of Omicron uncertainty Given the fast-moving virus situation in Europe, and mindful of the fact that Omicron won’t be taking a festive break, this Update identifies five key areas of uncertainty to watch over the coming... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone industrial production in October means euro-zone industry started Q4 on a decent note. But supply-chain problems remain acute and, in any case, any improvement is likely to be... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers on Draghi’s future Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Omicron uncertainty weighs on activity in Q4 This week brought more bad news for the euro-zone economy, with the surge in cases and spread of the Omicron variant casting a shadow over services sector activity. While recent restrictions have... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain flexibility in face of Omicron Just a day after we expect the Fed to prepare the ground for substantially tighter monetary policy in the coming years, policymakers at the ECB will probably commit to doubling their monthly APP... 9th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Omicron poses near-term downside risk to property recovery The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023... 9th December 2021 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our Q4 growth forecast Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (October) The rebound in auto output in October means that aggregate industrial production may increase in the fourth quarter. But with the services sector being hit hard by new Covid restrictions, it seems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months. 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Oct.) While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron on course to defeat far-right challengers The confirmation earlier today that far-right pundit Eric Zemmour will stand in France’s presidential election next spring comes as no surprise given his rise in the polls. But French President... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) November’s inflation data were yet another surprise on the upside. The Omicron variant has increased the level of uncertainty even further but for now we suspect that it will have a fairly small... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
