US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July paints a slightly bleaker picture of the sector than is the reality. The rise in the production and new orders sub-indices, along with the fall in the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2025) The weak 73,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, combined with large downward revisions to May and June’s gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, will strengthen the case for those on... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q2 US RICS survey shows investment demand dented by uncertainty While occupier market trends were mixed, the Q2 RICS survey showed a distinct downturn in investment market sentiment, with investment enquiries – and particularly those from abroad – well down from... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the FOMC’s hawkish surprise Judging by yesterday’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference remarks, the FOMC doesn’t look to be in a hurry to change its policy stance. That points to somewhat higher Treasury... 31st July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (June 2025) The above-target rise in core PCE prices in June, upward revisions to previous months’ data and the sharp rise in core goods inflation will do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about tariff-driven... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May 2025) The back-to-back GDP declines in April and May look slightly less concerning in light of June’s preliminary estimate showing a 0.1% m/m gain, suggesting the earlier weakness was partly a hangover from... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Powell far from convinced about September rate cut Fed Chair Jerome Powell left open the possibility of a September rate cut in his comments following the FOMC’s July meeting, but put much more emphasis on the still solid labour market and stressed... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (July 2025) The FOMC made only one major change to its policy statement this month, acknowledging that growth moderated in the first half of the year. While Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman both... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily You need to grow to be exceptional in the stock market Faster growth in earnings per share (EPS) is the main reason why equities in the US have fared better in local-currency (LC) terms than those in the euro-zone since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC holds but slower growth beginning to raise concern While the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting today, the communications showed policymakers placing greater emphasis on the downside risks to growth... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul 2025) The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting today as it awaits greater clarity over the country’s future trading terms with the US. The communications... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2025) The 3.0% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP overstates the economy’s underlying strength, as it was largely driven by a 30% slump in imports as pre-tariff stockpiling unwound. The more worrying... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS static as firms await greater tariff certainty The JOLTS data for June show a labour market waiting in suspense for the Trump administration to settle on a final arsenal of country-specific tariffs. While the federal layoff rate remains roughly... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2025) The second consecutive 0.3% m/m fall in house prices in May suggests that the market is still struggling to find balance under the weight of near-7% mortgages, in turn presenting a risk to our view... 29th July 2025 · 2 mins read
