US Economics Update Will Trump capture the FOMC? President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook looks set to go the courts, which will determine the extent and limits of the administration’s ability to influence monetary policy. It remains... 26th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2025) Although we expect house prices to regain some momentum in the third quarter, the fourth consecutive monthly decline in June suggests that risks to our forecast of a 1% increase this year are clearly... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (July 2025) July’s surprisingly positive durable goods orders numbers suggests that businesses may be acclimatising to tariff policy uncertainty and upping their investment. Weak capex survey intentions means we... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and the latest threat to Fed independence Despite the muted reaction to the latest developments, Trump’s efforts to bend the Fed to his will are a genuine threat to US markets. 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) All-property capital values rose modestly by 0.1% in Q2, suggesting a market floor, with cap rates falling by 5 bps. However, we expect values to see limited upside due to the narrow spread to risk... 22nd August 2025 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dovish Powell & pushy Trump halt the dollar’s rebound The dollar has given back most of its gains from earlier in the week after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech cemented expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That leaves the... 22nd August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Jackson Hole euphoria in markets We doubt today’s rally in Treasuries and renewed weakness in the dollar will gather steam, despite Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement at the Jackson Hole symposium that an adjustment in the FOMC’s policy... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Labour demand could be even weaker In the wake of the disappointing July payrolls release, which revealed an unexpected near-stagnation in employment over the summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that... 22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Softer price data keeps two rate cuts on the table The inflation outlook has improved notably in recent days, with core price pressures modest in July and businesses' selling price expectations holding steady this month. While it is still not certain... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025) Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech was more dovish than markets were braced for. His conclusion that “ with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (June 2025) The strong rebound in June retail sales should reassure the Bank of Canada that consumer spending is holding up, although the flash estimate of a drop back in sales in July implies that growth remains... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: EU gas to shake off the summer lull; Jackson Hole and gold Although news on the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has influenced EU natural gas prices this week, we still think there are more important factors that will eventually drive prices lower... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Where do markets stand ahead of Jackson Hole? US interest rate expectations and the dollar are edging higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated final Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Given the extent of policy easing still discounted in... 21st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2025) Despite a small uptick in July, home sales have held in a narrow 3.9-4.1 million annualised range since mid-2023, a historically weak level that highlights the lack of momentum in the struggling... 21st August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (July 29-30) The minutes of the Fed’s late-July FOMC meeting reveal that there was no broader support for a rate cut beyond the two formal dissenters – Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Why is the US tariff rate not higher? The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
