US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales in July, paired with the upward revision to May and June’s data, shows households continue to spend in healthy amounts despite the threat of tariffs – especially... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Does it matter if you can’t trust the economic data? For the time being, there is little sign of either US equities or bonds being undermined by faltering trust in key economic data. But that might not last. 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Labour market slowdown won’t curtail rental demand The recent slowdown in the labour market won’t stop rental demand from continuing to climb this year, given that falling labour demand and the immigration clampdown are most impacting cross-sections... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The economy has mostly held up against US tariffs so far, thanks largely to resilient consumer spending. But exports have weakened, and investment is showing signs of slowing. With the upcoming USMCA... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (July 2025) Most of the large upside surprise to core PPI in July was due to a head-scratching increase in margins for wholesalers and retailers. While the data still imply that the core PCE deflator rose by... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE needs a reset for real recovery to take hold With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily FOMC cuts wouldn’t guarantee lower long-end yields Today’s July US CPI data came in broadly in line with consensus expectations, so have done little to shift the prevailing market narrative that the FOMC is on track to resume cutting its policy rate... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why the stock market may not care if the Fed disappoints A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker data support September rate cut The weaker housing and trade data released this week support our call for a September rate cut, a view which investors are beginning to come round to. 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Will the post-payrolls calm last? After notching one of their biggest 1-day falls in recent years last Friday, Treasury yields have this week traded in a historically tight range despite no shortage of catalysts. If we’re right to... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000. 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2025) The Labour Force Survey has once again made a mockery of the economist consensus, with the surprise 83,000 surge in employment in June followed by a 40,800 slump last month. We are now a bit more... 8th August 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update The case for a dollar rebound despite that payrolls shock We still expect the dollar to recover some ground over the rest of 2025 as interest rate differentials shift back in favour of the US and some of the policy uncertainty discount evident in the dollar... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Miran a good pick for the Fed President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler as Fed Governor, albeit only on a temporary basis to begin with, is a welcome surprise. Miran is currently the... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
