US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Aug. 2025) Lower borrowing costs supported a surge in new home sales in August, and could drive further increases in the coming months, given the continued decline in mortgage rates since then. 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What do market prices say about the US neutral rate? Market pricing suggests that investors think the neutral rate isn’t too far below the current level of the fed funds rate. We agree, which is one reason we don’t expect a renewed rally in US... 23rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update H-1B change highlights crackdown on legal immigration too The White House’s decision to impose a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas confirms that the Trump administration is also determined to clamp down on legal immigration, which could further reduce... 22nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Final value falls deferred again, but US CRE still overvalued Our view that capital values still need to fall by 5% at the all-property level keeps our forecasts below consensus. Based on our forecast of a long-term 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5%, appraised cap... 22nd September 2025 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Update Inside the latest central bank decisions We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here.) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to... 22nd September 2025 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed puts the dollar on firmer footing The US dollar is set to end the week up against most other G10 currencies after a strong couple of days, driven by investors paring back their expectations for rate cuts after this week’s FOMC meeting... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC keeps options open, likely to cut again this year Bank of Canada officials signalled back in July they would support further interest rate cuts if labour market conditions continued to worsen, and this week they delivered, lowering the policy rate by... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed returns to Greenspan's risk management doctrine For long-time Fed watchers, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference this week was a return to the glory days of Alan Greenspan during the 1990s and 2000s, when “the Maestro” first adopted a risk... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jul. 2025) The sharp decline in retail sales in July is not as bad as it first looks, with August’s flash estimate pointing to a swift rebound, suggesting the weakness was mostly payback for earlier strength... 19th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The great pension switch into equities: for richer or poorer? The flipside of pension plans’ waning demand for very long-dated bonds has been their waxing demand for equities. Indeed, in the case of US private defined contribution (DC) plans, the share of... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What the Fed’s “risk-management” cut means for markets We think the post-FOMC rebound in long-dated Treasury yields will continue over the remainder of the easing cycle, as will the modest recovery in the US dollar. 18th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed on board with further loosening despite high inflation The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Sep 2025) The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency The immediate consequence for China’s economy of banning the import of Nvidia chips will be limited. But the move signals a strong commitment by China’s leadership to developing cutting-edge chip... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update 25bp cut but Bank unwilling to commit to more yet Alongside the decision to cut its policy rate by 25p today, the Bank of Canada dropped its previous forward guidance hinting at more cuts to come. Nonetheless, Governor Tiff Macklem’s comments in the... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
