US Economics Weekly Shutdown puts emphasis on alternative data The ongoing government shutdown is delaying release of official data for September and disrupting collection for October, leaving us to take steer on the economy from alternative measures for the time... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Sep 2025) The ISM services survey will provide little comfort for Fed officials, with the prices paid index edging up again despite weakness in the activity and employment indices. Nonetheless, given the recent... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How the soaring US stock market is reinforcing ‘home bias’ The US stock market’s relentless grind higher – the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Wednesday – and its accompanying outperformance of stock markets elsewhere are both reinforcing US residents’... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Capital Daily Softening labour market bigger worry than US shutdown History suggests the US government shutdown is unlikely to make much impact on financial markets even if it drags on for some time. The bigger issue is the continued softening of the US labour market... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have multifamily and industrial delinquency rates diverged? The CMBS delinquency rate for multifamily was the second highest in August, largely reflecting relatively loose lending practices around the turn of the decade which has led to an outsized impact from... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2025) The ISM manufacturing index has reversed the decline since April linked to the tariff disruptions, although it remains below the 50 mark and the accompanying comments from respondents suggest that... 1st October 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Sep. 2025) Although there is only a passing correlation between monthly changes in the ADP measure of private payrolls and the official non-farm payrolls estimates, the plunge in the former in September is a... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Economy to be largely unaffected by shutdown Most government shutdowns have a negligible macroeconomic impact, often lasting just a day or two, and this one might be no different. Even if it drags on, the effects should remain modest, with... 1st October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS suggests stagnant labour market The JOLTS data for August suggest a broadly stagnant labour market. Job openings were little changed in most sectors, while the private sector hiring rate and quits rates both edged down. An exception... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 25) We expect the recent drop in mortgage rates to give the housing market a short-term boost, although buying activity will remain low by historic standards. We expect the 30-year fixed rate to stay... 30th September 2025 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly The changing face of “climate leadership” If anyone was still confused about President Trump’s position on green policies, his description of climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” at the UN General Assembly... 30th September 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2025) The 0.1% m/m fall in house prices in July marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, meaning it now looks unlikely that prices will rise this year, as we had previously thought. That said, we still... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Why the ‘bubble’ in the S&P 500 isn’t ready to burst It’s hardly surprising there is renewed talk of a stock market bubble in the US with the S&P 500 back near a record high. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if the index ended this year above our... 29th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak economy to prompt more policy support The economy seems destined for a period of weak growth amid the US tariff shock and much lower immigration. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.0% next year, with a further rise in the... 29th September 2025 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Focus The threats from US reliance on foreign financial flows This Focus examines the large financial inflows to the US that have accompanied the country’s persistent current account deficit. It argues that those inflows face several growing threats which risk... 29th September 2025 · 20 mins read
