US Housing Market Update Lower rates to give mortgage lending a short-term lift We expect recent mortgage rate declines to support stronger lending and sales, prompting us to raise our end-2025 existing home sales forecast to 4.35m annualised, up from 4.15m. However, based on our... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to offset drag from immigration curbs We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI... 29th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Health care may not have a speedy recovery, despite tariff relief The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Funding stalemate on Capitol Hill The clock is ticking for Congress to extend the Federal government’s spending authority, which will expire when the next fiscal year begins at 12:01am on October 1st (next Wednesday), triggering a... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Southern US office markets still set to outperform We expect capital values to see another drop in 2026. But led by strong rent growth in Miami, we think southern markets will start to recover before the end of next year. Occupier demand in these... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar enjoys a broad rally The US dollar is on track to end the week stronger against most other major currencies thanks largely to investors further paring back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Although political... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Population growth slowing to a crawl It seems likely that the Trump administration’s clamp down on legal immigration will boost the attractiveness of Canada for many migrants, but that won’t change the big picture that population growth... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul. 2025) Although July GDP surprised to the upside, the flash estimate that output was unchanged in August will temper any optimism about the economy quickly gaining momentum. While a repeat of the sharp... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug 2025) The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real consumption in August, coupled with an upward revision to growth in July, is further evidence that economic activity continues to do well despite slower payrolls gains... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply uncertainties re-emerge as key driver of prices For all the recent focus on soft demand dynamics, developments on the supply side have been the main driver of oil prices this week. Heightened uncertainty is driving pessimism among US oil producers... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to weigh on job growth We forecast a 50,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September, as the continued slimming of the federal workforce limits any rebound in private payrolls growth. We also expect the unemployment rate to... 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2025) The low-and-barely changed level of existing home sales in August is yet more evidence of the quagmire the existing home market has been stuck in for a couple of years now. While the downward trend in... 25th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Aug) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est & Annual Revision) The mother lode of data just released suggest the economy is still doing just fine, despite the slowdown in employment growth. Last year’s GDP growth was confirmed as strong in the annual revision, Q2... 25th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More upside for China’s stock market as its AI+ plan gets going China’s stock market got a boost today, as Alibaba announced its latest plans for AI. Despite the challenges faced by China’s economy, we suspect there is more upside for MSCI’s tech-heavy China Index... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update How concerning is elevated long-run unemployment? We suspect the main reason why the long-run unemployment rate has shot up is the surge in immigration since the pandemic, as many of these migrants have struggled to find work. This suggests the... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
