Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov 2025) While the decline in manufacturing sales in November was broadly as expected, the surprise slump in wholesale sales suggests that GDP growth was quite a bit weaker than expected last quarter. 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What could wake up the US Treasury market? There are at least three things that we think could see the US Treasury market spring back to life, although our base case is that its current calm period will continue. 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Trump's affordability push to have limited success President Trump’s proposals to improve housing affordability are not enough to move the dial, which would require a sustained decline in mortgage rates. Unfortunately, our positive outlook for the... 14th January 2026 · 11 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Dec 2025) The boost to purchasing activity from the modest reduction in borrowing costs in the latter-half of 2025 continued to gather momentum in December, with existing home sales rising to an almost three... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Nov. 2025) The broad-based gains in headline, core (ex-autos), and control group retail sales in November indicate that household spending remained resilient early in the holiday season, with the government... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Oct & Nov 2025) The delayed October and November data revealed that PPI inflation was higher than most expected toward the end of last year, but that was largely due to revisions to the data for September, which have... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus How tariffs are (and are not) reshaping world trade This Focus answers 10 questions about the tariff state of play, how trade flows are changing, and whether the resilience of world trade will last. Beyond our conclusion that trade will continue to... 14th January 2026 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of investors’ reaction to December’s CPI report Indirect attacks on the Fed’s independence aren’t likely to roil the financial markets in the US, so long as inflation there remains under control. That is one take away from recent events and data. 13th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Venezuelan oil only a small threat to Canadian output The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. 13th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Sep. & Oct. 2025) New home sales remained above 700,000 annualised in October for the third month in a row, confirming that the combination of slightly lower borrowing costs and strong homebuilder sales incentives are... 13th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Dec 2025) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% m/m increase in the core CPI in December suggested that there has been some genuine moderation in underlying inflation pressures in recent months. Nevertheless, our... 13th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2026 We expect another slow year for investment in 2026 and a correspondingly poor (and below-consensus) outlook for total returns. On the bright side the improving apartments outlook will see it return 7%... 13th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Latest threat to Fed independence likely to fail The Trump administration’s latest attempt to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues on the FOMC to cut interest rates will fail and there are several reasons to believe it could backfire. 12th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Don’t count out the greenback, despite threats to Fed We still think there are plenty of reasons to be positive on the US dollar, despite the latest threats to the Fed’s independence. 12th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Productivity boom: this time it's structural The latest surge in productivity suggests the AI boom is providing lasting benefits to the US economy that go well beyond just the value of investment in data centres. Non-farm business productivity... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reports of the oil sands’ death are greatly exaggerated President Trump’s hope to apply his “drill, baby, drill” mantra to Venezuela carries risks for Canada’s oil sector, but even in the most extreme scenario it would be years before we saw a big impact... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
