US Rapid Response New Fed Chair Announcement If officially announced later today, President Trump’s apparent pick of Kevin Warsh for the next Fed Chair would arguably be one of the better outcomes for investors compared to the other contenders... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Larger tax refunds a windfall for households in H1 2026 Households’ annual tax refunds should be about $100bn larger this year, a windfall equivalent to 0.5% of annualised consumption. Although temporary, this boost gives us further reason to expect that... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Modest payroll gain and unchanged unemployment The January employment report will reveal significant downward revisions to payrolls in 2025 and, due to an updated methodology for the birth-death model, the initially reported payroll gains for this... 29th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Nov. 2025) The sharp swings in trade continued in November, with the trade deficit rebounding sharply to $56.8bn, from the prior month’s multi-year low of $29.2bn, a move that will lower most estimates of fourth... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov 2025) Exports volumes in November are not as bad as first appears, and probably would have risen if not for a plunge in volatile gold exports. Meanwhile, we continue to see tentative signs of Canada... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy still matters for the greenback We continue to think that a cautious Fed will mean Treasury yields rise a little and the US dollar strengthens, despite recent developments in the latter. 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to loosening bias despite stronger activity data The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is another sign that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is further evidence that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest... 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt US equity underperformance will last US equities had been struggling to make headway against those elsewhere in recent months and have now begun underperforming significantly, even as US indices climb to fresh highs. While this has... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank in holding pattern awaiting CUSMA renegotiation The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Official population projections may not be low enough US population growth is expected to slow to only 0.2% y/y this year, matching the record low. Yet the risks to the official forecasts arguably lie to the downside, with a modest fall in the population... 28th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Data centers lift global CRE fundraising, but broader recovery fragile Global commercial real estate fundraising improved last year, but the details highlight that the pick-up was mostly driven by data centers. A broader market recovery was held back by investor caution... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Four key points on Bessent’s intervention gambit As the dollar continues to drop in the wake of intervention chatter, here are four key takeaways from an extraordinary few days. 27th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update The impact of AI on commercial property returns By raising overall occupier demand, commercial real estate should benefit from the boost to economic growth that AI will provide. But some sectors will face challenges, particularly during the... 27th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/ FHFA House Prices (Nov 2025) The solid 0.5% rise in house prices in November builds on October’s upwardly-revised 0.4% rise, and we expect further price acceleration in the months ahead as a pick-up in demand meets nagging... 27th January 2026 · 2 mins read
