US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jan 2026) While not as eye-catching as last month’s rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high, the ISM services index remained at a healthy 53.8 in January, hinting at the potential for some more... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier... 4th February 2026 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Jan. 2026) The large 8% rise in home purchase mortgage applications in January lifted them to their highest level in three years and is consistent with existing home sales rising to around 4.5m annualised over... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Could SPR demand absorb Venezuelan oil imports? The potential for Venezuelan oil to be used, albeit indirectly, to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the coming years gives us even more confidence in our view that a boost to US imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rate cutter’s remorse not a threat to most bond markets Australian bonds have been battered lately, and its currency boosted, by the prospect of the country’s central bank reversing course on monetary easing. But even though it’s now followed through with... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan 2026) The surge in the ISM Manufacturing Index in January suggests that after years of malaise, perhaps the manufacturing sector might be turning a corner. While the headline index is still at a level that... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Warsh's QT wouldn't enable US rate cuts The idea that the Fed could pave the way for much lower policy rates by shrinking its balance sheet is unconvincing. Balance sheet reduction is a blunt tool for tightening financial conditions, and... 2nd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Warsh for the Fed, war worries recede, greenback wobbles After an unusually hectic few days for financial markets, even by recent standards, here are three key things to watch in the coming week. 2nd February 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How the nomination of Warsh is being received in the markets The reaction in the markets to Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is broadly consistent with our view that the president has made a relatively safe choice. 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Direction of next rate move depends on timeframe Heightened uncertainty surrounding the outlook has the Bank leaving all options on the table. While we think the policy rate’s next move will be upwards and not come until 2027, any change before then... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh faces an uphill battle at the Fed There was “broad support” among the FOMC to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at between 3.50% and 3.75% at this week’s meeting. Non-voting participants, according to Chair Jerome Powell... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly US doubles down on climate disengagement The loss of US funding for a host of UN climate bodies could slow progress on the scientific study of global warming and further undermine the already far-from-optimal international cooperation on... 30th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Warsh a relatively safe choice President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is a relatively safe choice for investors, with Warsh’s prior hawkish views counteracting concerns he might morph into a full-blown... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov 2025) We now know that GDP probably declined in the fourth quarter, and the monthly data for November is grimmer than first appears, with broad based declines in goods producing industries offset by a... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US PPI (Dec 2025) The 0.5% m/m increase in final demand PPI in December was mainly due to an increase in trade services margins. Excluding food, energy and trade services, core PPI increased by 0.4% m/m last month... 30th January 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market The building tensions between Iran and the US have driven Brent crude prices to a six-month high. That said, we think that the historical example of last year’s 12-day war, and a well-supplied oil... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
