Asia Economics Update Malaysia: strong growth provides fiscal breathing room Strong economic growth has boosted Malaysia’s government revenues, giving policymakers some room to lift spending ahead of a possible general election next year. But the budget still targets a further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong growth in Vietnam, BSP hiking cycle not over Vietnam’s GDP growth surged to 10% y/y in the third quarter. However, rapid credit growth of around 20% is helping to fuel the boom, raising concerns that bad loans could rise and growth could slow... 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB sell-off may have run its course The 10-year JGB yield has levelled off over the last couple of weeks even as yields elsewhere have surged to multi-year highs. While our fiscal trackers suggest that growth in government spending has... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen found its feet amid the bond sell-off The yen has, surprisingly, been one of the best performers this year amid the rise in bond yields; we think it will fare even better once they fall back. 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to the repo rate today (to 5.50%), vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today, vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most analysts had initially expected the... 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 26) The continued strength of wage growth even after the end of the summer bonus will encourage the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to neutral levels sooner rather than later. 7th October 2026 · 1 min read
FX Markets Focus How undervalued is the renminbi? Even though the renminbi is at its strongest level against the US dollar since 2022, in real trade-weighted terms it remains close to its weakest in more than a decade. In our assessment, it is... 6th October 2026 · 19 mins read
Asia Economics Update China Shock 2.0: a growing challenge for Korea China’s rise up the manufacturing value chain is putting increasing pressure on Korean producers. The impact has been particularly pronounced in batteries, petrochemicals and shipbuilding, where... 5th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Financial stability concerns won’t derail rate hikes While higher bond yields are creating valuation losses, higher interest rates are lifting banks’ lending margins. What’s more, higher rates are not creating major problems for insurance firms. The... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI trade surplus rising, despite surge in chip imports China's trade deficit in chips and computing equipment has increasing significantly over the past year as imports have surged. But an even larger pick-up in exports of other goods required to build... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rapid and lopsided growth in Korea, CBSL on hold Recent Korean data have been mixed, with weak consumer spending being offset by continued strength in exports. We expect the economy to grow by 4% this year. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s central bank left... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity data provide comfort ahead of rate hike The upbeat activity data released this week will have provided the RBI with some extra comfort ahead of next week's policy announcement. With rising inflation the key focus, we expect a 25bp increase... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to our interest rate forecasts are growing The data released this week vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation and we expect the Bank to keep hiking rates once every quarter. With few signs that higher interest... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
