Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market will give RBNZ pause for thought New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose more sharply last quarter than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had anticipated and leading indicators suggest that it will remain high for now. Accordingly, we... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update AI will boost office demand in tech hubs as long as the bubble lasts We expect AI firms to drive office demand in key tech hubs as they expand and compete for top talent, although this exposure heightens the downside risk for the least diversified tech markets if we... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Your questions on Japan’s markets answered The yen had weakened to a 40-year low against the dollar before FX intervention prompted a rebound last week, while the 10-year JGB yield is close to multi-year highs. This Update answers key client... 6th August 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update 2024-style carry trade unwind still appears unlikely While carry trade positioning appears to have increased over the past couple of years, we doubt the recent yen intervention alone will trigger a carry trade unwind and a rapid yen appreciation along... 5th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies? While PM Takaichi intends to abandon “excessive austerity” and is trying to steer the BoJ in a more dovish direction, we don’t believe that her policies pose a major risk for Japan’s economic outlook... 5th August 2026 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update Who is most exposed to an AI earnings bust? An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today as it continues to monitor “the uncertainties of the West Asia conflict”. But we still think that rising inflation will... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2026) With spare capacity in the labour market still rising, the RBNZ won’t be in a rush to hike rates again. 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA’s next move will be down, but not until H2 2027 We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its August meeting. Although the Bank is likely to continue talking tough on inflation for a while, we don’t think it will go so far as to raise rates again... 4th August 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (Q2/June 2026) With headwinds to private consumption still looming, we doubt that the moderate pickup in household spending last quarter will move the needle for the RBA. Our base case remains that the Bank is done... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Indian equities to outperform amidst global AI sell-off We think that strong fundamentals and India’s lower exposure than many to AI stocks will lead the MSCI India to outperform all other markets over the next 18 months. 3rd August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention, US-Iran pause (again), & US payrolls US economic policy has taken a strange turn but we think the underlying dynamism of the US economy and stock market will win out in the coming months. Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be... 3rd August 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update PMIs point to strong growth and easing price pressures The early July data for Asia were generally encouraging. Manufacturing surveys remained upbeat and, together with another strong set of Korean trade figures, suggest that booming electronics exports... 3rd August 2026 · 2 mins read
