Bonds Update Bolsonaro victory largely priced into Brazilian assets We expect limited immediate market reaction if Flavio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s run-off election. Over the medium term, though, the bond rally may continue if the Selic rate is cut by more than money... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2026) Growth in the region appears to have weakened sharply in Q3 and, if anything, the risks to our below-consensus forecasts may now lie to the downside. High inflation across the region limits the extent... 20th October 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Parsing Banxico’s minutes, Brazil’s pension debate The dovish minutes to the last Banxico meeting may have been aimed at ramming home the point that policymakers won’t mechanically follow the Fed in raising rates. But in any case, the fall in the peso... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update How would Canada fare without Quebec and Alberta? The blow to GDP from the loss of Quebec industry and Alberta’s oil and gas sector could be mediated somewhat by continued free trade, firms relocating from the seceding provinces to the rest of Canada... 15th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Israel’s election: what it means for the macro outlook lsrael’s upcoming election is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s near-term growth outlook or fiscal trajectory, but it will have significant medium-term implications. An opposition-led... 15th October 2026 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Weekly When should Burnham call a general election? To the extent that the economy matters in determining the timing of general elections and their result, our economic forecasts and the government's tax and spending plans imply that 2028 looks like a... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Le Pen the fiscal hawk? Merz the China hawk? Marine Le Pen's proposals this week to slash France's budget deficit are unlikely to have done much to bolster her fiscal credentials. Meanwhile, the joint letter by Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Spain's snap election The outcome of Spain’s snap election on 29th November is uncertain, but opinion polls suggest that the centre-right People’s Party and far-right Vox are well placed to form a coalition. That would... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Flávio’s strong election showing to boost Brazil’s markets Flávio Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected performance in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election is likely to boost the real and equities later today, perhaps by 3-5%, and lead to a drop in... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Diesel price risk, triple lock trickery, and an EU reality check A ban on US exports of diesel could raise UK diesel prices from £2 a litre to £3 a litre and mean CPI inflation peaks at just above 5% instead of just above 4%. Meanwhile, the change to the triple... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s bond sell-off has further to run This week’s sharp sell-off in French government bonds suggests that investors have woken up to the severity of country’s public debt problem. Even if things calm down a bit in the coming weeks, which... 2nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
