UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The last major economic releases before the Budget next Wednesday paint a pretty grim picture with the government borrowing more than expected in October and retail sales falling sharply at the start... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Looser fiscal policy adds to case for BoJ tightening The large supplementary budget announced today includes generous energy subsidies that will push inflation below 2% early next year. However, by boosting underlying price pressures, looser fiscal... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield will reach 2% next year The government indicated this week that it will loosen fiscal policy by around 1% of GDP in the upcoming supplementary budget. Coupled with PM Takaichi giving BoJ Governor Ueda a free hand on when to... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our latest forecasts and calls to reflect key developments across the region. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record very... 20th November 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risks tilted towards a bigger hit to GDP from UK Budget The risk that the Budget could prove detrimental for GDP has only been heightened by the news that the Chancellor has reportedly decided not to raise income tax in favour of a shopping list of smaller... 14th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France delays pension reform; Swiss-US talks The narrowing in the spread on French government bonds over the past month may reflect the fact that France has avoided early elections for now and the latest economic data have been quite strong. But... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS fallout, renminbi debt risks South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana couldn’t have wished for a better response from investors to this week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) and his decision to lower the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: an opportunistic MTBPS South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as an opportunity to spend a large chunk of a recent revenue windfall to boost the economy. But this is likely... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s at stake in Chile’s election? The latest polls suggest that a right-wing candidate is likely to win Chile’s presidential election on 16th November, probably leading to more pro-business policymaking and a tighter fiscal stance... 10th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bank Rate in BoE downside scenario looks more convincing The Chancellor gave the biggest hint yet this week that large tax rises are coming in the Budget on 26 th November. Our view that she will raise taxes by around £38bn, which would weigh on inflation... 7th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget plays fast and loose with fiscal truths A deeper dive into the budget reveals a dearth of new investment, toothless spending cuts and an overreliance on private capital. We therefore still expect the Bank of Canada to be forced to cut its... 7th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump takes aim at Nigeria, build up to MTBPS Nigeria became the latest country to face President Trump's wrath this week. For now, there are reasons to think that any economic impact will be limited. But it’s another reason for African... 7th November 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
Event UK Drop-In: Budget Preview - What to expect for the economy and markets 19th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT Will the Chancellor’s second Budget be as big and as bad for the economy as her first? Will it dampen or ignite the gilt market’s fiscal fears?
