US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Strong AI-related business investment and resilient consumer spending means we now expect growth to average near-3% in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited... 27th October 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Five-Year Plan teasers suggest rebalancing will be slow Officials have pledged to significantly increase the consumption share of GDP. But the wider messaging on China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan suggests that efforts to further expand the supply-side of the... 24th October 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Door nudges open for BoE, but window shut for Chancellor The past two weeks have boosted our confidence in our long-held forecasts that inflation and interest rates will fall further than most expect next year. And while September’s surprisingly soft... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker inflation reduces urgency for BoJ rate hikes While new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is reportedly preparing a larger supplementary budget than the one last year, coalition partner Ishin No Kai has dropped its demand to slash the sales tax on... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US defence talks, Egypt-IMF deal, Morocco 2026 Budget The US and Saudi Arabia have stepped up security talks ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House next month. A full defence pact is unlikely to materialise, however, given... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (October 2025) After a very strong run, India’s economy faces a more challenging few quarters in the face of punitive US tariffs. But hopes are growing again that these could be reduced. And in any case, domestic... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2025) September’s figures highlight the poor performance of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. This supports our view that the Chancellor will need to raise about £27bn... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Small fiscal loosening in the euro-zone next year Draft 2026 budget plans submitted to the European Commission this week point to a moderate loosening of fiscal policy next year. In practice we think that the degree of policy loosening will be... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Odinga’s passing, oil prices drop, Nigeria inflation The passing this week of Raila Odinga, a prominent politician in Kenya, is likely to result in his party being less committed to the governing alliance with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Incoming PM unlikely to loosen fiscal policy much The stars are aligning for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister as soon as Tuesday. While the parties that she needs to rely on to secure a parliamentary majority have all been... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Financial repression to keep a lid on bond yields Financial repression is not a costless way to deal with public sector debt burdens, but it tends to be more politically palatable than the other options. Indeed, it is already happening and... 16th October 2025 · 25 mins read
Event Drop-In: Nigeria’s economic outlook – Reform momentum and policy risks 23rd October 2025, 3:00PM BST Nigeria’s economy appears to be responding to President Bola Tinubu’s reforms, with growth accelerating to a four-year high.
Japan Economics Update Lower BoJ profits not a major drag on public finances If we’re right that the Bank of Japan will lift its policy rate to 1.5% by 2027, its net interest income will turn negative over the next couple of years. However, its overall net income should remain... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Prabowo’s first year: abandoning the policy guardrails? Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto will mark a year in office on Monday (20th October). After an encouraging start, a series of protests in recent months have pushed his administration in the... 15th October 2025 · 15 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Japan’s leadership turmoil – economic and market implications 15th October 2025, 9:00AM BST Japan’s search for a new prime minister has upended its political landscape – and the outcome will shape the country’s economic and market outlook.
