UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Energy prices beckon deflation’s return It is likely that CPI inflation turned negative in September, and should remain close to zero for most of the rest of this year. However, as weak price pressures are being driven largely by lower... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German slowdown will force the ECB’s hand Last week’s news on the euro-zone brought the strongest signs yet that some parts of the currency union are starting to feel the effects of the deterioration in the international environment. In... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? A raft of gloomy survey data has fuelled fears that the UK’s economic recovery is running out of steam. There are some indications that quarterly GDP growth will moderate from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% or so... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah rebound unlikely to prompt immediate rate cuts The rebound in the Indonesian rupiah over the past week is unlikely to be enough to persuade Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. But provided the recent rally does not go... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower price expectations add to case for more easing Expectations of future price rises among Japanese households and firms have been undermined by the energy-related collapse in observed inflation. Even though the drag from cheaper energy will fade in... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) Czech inflation came in at a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.4% y/y last month, as an easing of the decline in food prices more than offset a steeper decline in fuel prices. The bigger picture... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in September, coming on the back of dovish minutes from last month’s MPC meeting published this week, and a recent appreciation of the peso against the dollar... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures to rise further A seasonal slide in fruit and vegetable prices may have temporarily pulled down consumer price inflation last month. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in Chilean inflation in September, to 4.6% y/y, is an encouraging sign that price pressures resulting from the sharp fall in the peso over the past year are starting to wane. But with... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Softer economic news further alleviates need for hike The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% this month would have been an easy one given the recent softening in both domestic and global economic news. While financial markets have... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy not falling off a cliff! Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.5% y/y in September, but the headline rate is on course to rise again in October as fuel price hikes recently announced by state-owned oil company Petrobras come... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
