Latin America Chart Pack Times a-changin’ in Argentina? The surprise outcome of the presidential election in Argentina has raised the prospect of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking, following 12 years of populism under successive Kirchner... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak inflation expectations add to pressure on ECB The dovish stance taken by the ECB in recent weeks has partly reflected its fear that inflation expectations have become unanchored from the near-2% target. Such concerns are justified, supporting... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Oct.) The drop in small business confidence in October undermines the upbeat message from the flash manufacturing PMI and suggests that economic activity is broadly flat. 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Vietnam and Bangladesh exports bucking the trend Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Efforts to restrict gold imports likely to have limited success India’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports, due to be rolled out next month, are likely to have mixed results. The Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme’s easy accessibility and more transparent... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Cote d’Ivoire & Tanzania: Peaceful elections a welcome sign Peaceful elections held earlier this month in Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania were welcome signs of improving institutions in both countries. While final results haven’t been announced yet, the fact that... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (Aug.) The 2.6% y/y rise in Mexico’s IGAE Economic Activity Indicator in August was driven by a pick-up in growth in the agriculture and services sectors. More generally, the Activity Index for July and... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.2% m/m decline in consumer prices in September, which pushed the annual inflation rate down to 1.0%, from 1.3%, was almost entirely due to a big slump in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices fell by... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Services strength underpinning rebalancing For all the (justified) doubts over the accuracy of the headline growth rates, the third quarter GDP data provide evidence of encouraging shifts in the economy. According to the official data... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) While the rebound in today’s flash manufacturing PMI for October suggests that the economy may have turned a corner in Q4, the Bank of Japan tends to pay little attention to the PMI surveys. 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to play a more pivotal role in the policy debate Our forecast that underlying inflation in Australia will fall below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range next year suggests that inflation will soon start to have a bigger influence on policy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Upcoming elections key to outlook for several FMs Four frontier markets are due to hold national elections in the coming month. The most high-profile election is in Argentina where Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Oct.) The 2.5% y/y rise in Mexican consumer prices in the first half of this month is unlikely to have much of a bearing on next Wednesday’s MPC meeting, given that it was in line with expectations. However... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack “Good” deflation returns The latest consumer prices figures showed that CPI inflation turned negative again in September. Although the current period of negative inflation should prove to be short lived and shallow, inflation... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
