Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Egypt’s parliamentary elections Egyptians are scheduled to return to the polls this month to elect a new parliament, which is likely to emerge as a body that is largely aligned with President al-Sisi. As we explain in this Watch, in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates before end-2015 The recent rebound in the rupiah was never likely to be enough to persuade Bank Indonesia (BI) to loosen policy, and today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Sep.) Although France’s headline HICP inflation rate held above zero in September, today’s data revealed that price pressures remain exceptionally weak and will add to the growing pressure on the ECB to... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi Arabian inflation rose to 2.3% y/y in September, its highest rate this year. But with the economy set to slow and global commodity prices likely to stay low, we expect inflation to remain... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep 15) The softness of September’s retail sales figures supports our view that the Fed probably isn’t going to hike interest rates until early next year. Our calculations now suggest that third-quarter GDP... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Data released today showed that Nigerian inflation continued its slow grind higher last month, reaching 9.4% y/y, its strongest rate in over two years. Given the previous slide in the naira and the... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling import prices create another headwind for the BoJ While the Bank of Japan remains upbeat about the prospects of hitting its 2% inflation target, the fact that non-energy import prices have just recorded the first fall since the launch of QQE... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Wholesale price inflation rose in September after falling a record low in August. Looking ahead, we think that WPI inflation will accelerate further over the coming months as the favourable base... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Today's inflation data suggest that seasonal factors and volatile food prices aside, price pressures were basically stable last month. Nonetheless, we think it is only a matter of time before... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) Deflation returned to the UK in September. Although it is likely to be another very brief and shallow affair, this clearly puts the MPC under even less pressure than before to raise interest rates. 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero may be just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Global uncertainty adds to downside risks The European economy has performed relatively well over recent months amid financial market unrest and signs of a slowdown elsewhere. But the euro-zone’s exporters are still not benefitting from the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) While consumer sentiment deteriorated in September, the Bank of Japan will welcome that household inflation expectations did not weaken further. 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.15) The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero maybe just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Indian consumer price inflation rose in September. Looking ahead, while theRBI’s inflation target for January 2016 isn’t under threat, meeting the medium term target will be difficult. Given this, we... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
