Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in January, to 5.4% y/y from 6.3% y/y in December, means that another large 75bp cut in the Selic interest rate is on the cards later this month. Elsewhere, inflation... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation up in January, but rebound unlikely to last A further rise in producer price inflation, which probably hit a fresh five year high in January, is likely to fuel concerns about a pick-up in broad price pressures this year. But we think consumer... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) Headline wage growth slowed in December as firms cut winter bonuses. While it should pick up again in coming months, a strong rebound is not on the cards. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation is approaching a peak After reaching a 47-month high of 1.8% in January, euro-zone consumer price inflation is set to rise further in the coming months. While we expect headline inflation to surpass the ECB’s near-2%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Where do the risks to the MPC’s forecasts lie? Last week’s Inflation Report saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seemingly abandon “Project Fear” in favour of “Project Optimism”. Indeed, the MPC seemed upbeat on growth prospects and relaxed... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards The hawkish statement by the Central Bank of Russia that accompanied today’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold has prompted us to revise up our end-year interest rate forecast (to 8.25%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 9.2% y/y, was due largely to higher petrol and food inflation. The impact of the weaker lira on core inflation has been surprisingly muted so far. At... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a done deal Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting next week. But, despite the continued damage and uncertainty caused by... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon The upwards revisions to the Czech National Bank’s inflation forecasts and the relatively hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforce our view that the Council’s koruna cap policy will end fairly... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC upbeat on growth but relaxed on inflation The first Bank of England “Super Thursday” of 2017 saw the MPC Minutes and Inflation Report strike a cautiously-optimistic tone. That said, while the economy appears to be coping with Brexit... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How worried should we be about inflation? Sterling’s post-referendum fall has clearly put inflation on a steep upward trajectory this year. But there are reasons to think that the forthcoming rise in CPI inflation won’t be too great and that... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
