Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflationary pressure rising in Sweden, fading in Norway While inflation fell in both Sweden and Norway in January, the outlook for prices in these countries differs significantly. Consumer price inflation in Sweden fell from 1.7% to 1.4% in January. But a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia fell in year-on-year terms in January as food prices continued to decline at a steep pace and the effects of last year’s subsidy cuts dropped out of the annual... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Faster nominal GDP growth helping to bring down debt ratios Nominal GDP growth in advanced economies has picked up over the past twelve months or so and is likely to remain fairly rapid during the coming two years. This should help households, firms and... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s surprise fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes has brought the recent run of resilient economic news to an abrupt end and suggests that the hit to consumer spending growth... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack One year on from the oil slump Emerging market inflation and export growth jumped in January, although this had more do with base effects than a marked strengthening of underlying demand or price pressures. The year-on-year growth... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The dip in Swedish inflation in January was mainly due to base effects and will be reversed in February. And with pay growth set to pick up after this year’s wage negotiations, underlying inflationary... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank looks through inflation spike The decision by Egypt’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate on hold despite the rise in inflation to a 30-year high last month means that additional monetary tightening is no longer on the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising inflation expectations to lift Treasury yields further While US break-even inflation rates have recently risen, this appears primarily to reflect increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook. As actual expectations for inflation rise and investors... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank maintains dovishness for now While the Riksbank maintained a very dovish tone today, the strength of the Swedish economy and rising inflationary pressures mean that the Bank will soon have to change its stance. We expect the repo... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Coping with higher inflation Growth in household spending is likely to slow over the next few years as inflation rises and dampens growth in real incomes. But loose credit conditions and relatively upbeat sentiment by past... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI inflation took another step up in January and looks set to breach the MPC’s 2% target next month. However, we don’t think that the forthcoming rise will panic the MPC into hiking interest rates... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Italian GDP (Q4), German Consumer Prices (Jan.) Following this morning’s release of German and Italian Q4 GDP data, we are sticking to our forecast that euro-zone Q4 GDP growth will be left unrevised at +0.5%. 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
