Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further drop in Brazilian inflation in December seals the deal for a larger cut in the Selic interest rate at today’s COPOM meeting (decision due 18.20 local time). A 75bp cut is possible, but we... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we now worry about rising inflation? Consumer price inflation is set to rise sharply in most advanced economies, with the US rate likely to reach around 3% by the middle of this year. However, talk of “global reflation” seems wide of the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation has further to rise Yesterday’s inflation data from Egypt made for grim reading and we think the headline rate is likely to peak at around 27% in the coming months, prompting further interest rate hikes. Price pressures... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to panic about the pound While the latest fall in the pound could potentially push inflation higher than otherwise, it should strengthen the already considerable beneficial effects of a weaker currency too. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar and fresh subsidy cuts pushed Egyptian inflation up further last month to its second-highest rate in a quarter of a century. With inflation likely to... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Dec.) In December, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation edged down to a 19- month low. We think that it will fall further, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points in the... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rebound in consumer confidence to a three-year high in December supports our view that consumer spending will be one of the driving forces of the economic recovery this year. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) A drop in food inflation pulled down headline consumer price inflation in December. We expect it to leap in January, but the increase is unlikely to be a major concern for policymakers. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y in December and looks set to breach the upper-bound of the central bank’s 2-4% target range as soon as this month as a result of rising domestic fuel prices... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation soft in December but set to leap Headline inflation probably fell in December. But looking ahead, we think both consumer and producer price inflation are set to jump this quarter on the back of a surge in commodity price inflation... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy entering 2017 with some momentum The world economy is entering 2017 with stronger growth and rising inflation, but prospects for the rest of the year are more mixed. Activity has picked up in unison across the major economies in... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A strong end to 2016 Revisions from the ONS mean that quarterly GDP growth in Q3 is now estimated to have been 0.6% – the same as in Q2. What’s more, business surveys suggest that this pace was maintained in Q4... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Romania was less hawkish than we had expected. Nonetheless, with further fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and economic slack now exhausted... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected drop in Chilean inflation to a three-year low of 2.7% y/y, taking it further below the central bank’s 3% target, probably seals the deal for a 25bp interest rate cut (to 3.25%... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation pushing prices down Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in December as price discounting continued following demonetisation. However, further ahead, demonetisation could push inflation up by leading to... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
