Bank willing to accept below-target inflation The Bank of Canada has implied that it would be willing to accept below-target inflation during periods when financial vulnerabilities are elevated. Accelerating house price inflation means financial... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in Turkish inflation in January is unlikely to sway the central bank (CBRT) away from another interest rate cut this month as policymakers cave into pressure from President Erdogan. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German HICP (Jan.) The increase in Germany’s headline HICP inflation rate to 1.6% in January was a little smaller than most had expected and was driven by higher energy inflation. Underlying inflation seems to have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) While headline inflation rose sharply again in December, we expect it to settle at around 0.5% this year. Higher energy inflation is likely to be offset by weaker underlying price pressures caused by... 24th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) The strong rise in headline inflation from 1.5% in Q3 to 1.9% in Q4 should be enough to prevent the RBNZ cutting rates in February. And given that we now expect a strengthening in economic activity to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The above-target Brazilian inflation reading for the middle of January reduces the chance of an interest rate cut next month. Mexican inflation also rose, supporting our expectation of a short easing... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greater focus on housing wouldn’t alter ECB’s stance The ECB could decide in its strategy review to include owner-occupied housing costs in the measure of inflation which it targets. But we think it is unlikely to do so and, in any case, such a change... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Consumer Prices (Dec.) Headline inflation and an average of the three core measures were unchanged at slightly above 2% at the end of 2019, but we expect both to decline toward 1.5% by the second half of 2020. 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation strengthened in December, and we expect that it will continue to do so in Q1, bringing the current monetary easing cycle to an end after just one more 25bp rate cut. 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia emerged from deflation in December, recording a positive inflation reading for the first time in a year. We expect underlying price pressures to stay weak over the course of this year... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation is still low Underlying inflation pressures in the euro-zone have been building over the past five years, but so slowly that it’s barely perceptible. And rather than being the start of a new trend, the jump in... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
