Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Core inflation probably peaked in November Our calculations suggest that an average of the Bank of Canada’s three core inflation measures edged up to a fresh 10-year high in November. But given GDP growth has been below potential for much of... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Nov.) While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% for the foreseeable future, the persistence of core price pressures means that the balance of risks is skewed... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Egyptian inflation last month to 3.6% y/y still leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target paving the way for further interest rate cuts over the next twelve months or... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Rising pork prices pushed consumer price inflation to its highest level in close to eight years last month. But the pick-up in food inflation will reverse soon and broader demand-side price pressures... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation remained at a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in November, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.50% to 7.25% next week. 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) The continued weakness of core inflation that we expect in November’s consumer price data will probably give the MPC scope to ease policy again in the near term. But the big picture is that the... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The drop in Russian inflation to just 3.5% y/y in November increases the probability of another 50bp interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next Friday although, on balance, we think a 25bp... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov.) The slightly larger-than-expected Brazilian rise in Brazilian inflation in November, to 3.3% y/y, was driven partly by food inflation, but also by a rise in regulated prices. The data are unlikely to... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: higher inflation won’t stop further easing Inflation in the Philippines rose last month for the first time since May and is set to climb higher over the coming year. However, with inflation set to remain low by past standards, we are sticking... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Nov.) The uptick in Korean export growth in November was much weaker than expectations and suggests that external demand remains in the doldrums. Headline inflation was also weaker than expected last month. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s jump in inflation is unlikely to be the beginning of a sustained upward trend in price pressures. With employment growth slowing and slack in the labour market increasing, wage growth seems... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
