Global Inflation Watch Coronavirus crisis to drag inflation down While the coronavirus crisis will have both upward and downward effects on prices, we expect the net impact to be significantly disinflationary, for the advanced economies at least, over the next year... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Ger. Unemp. (Mar.) The inflation rate in the euro-zone took a leg down in March, largely due to the slump in oil prices. With the economy taking on the verge of an unprecedented nose-dive, we expect headline inflation... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation heading close to zero The collapse in economic activity, spike in unemployment and slump in oil prices look set to push inflation down from 1.7% now to around 0.5%, with the risk that inflation falls to, or below zero... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation set to turn negative The precipitous fall in oil prices and virus-related plunge in demand is likely to push euro-zone inflation to a record low of -1% in the summer. While the risk of deflation becoming entrenched seems... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2020) The further fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of March will allow the central bank to lower the Selic rate by a further 50bp in the near term. But the scope for aggressive easing is limited. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The drop in CPI inflation from 1.8% in January to 1.7% in February is a small sign of things to come – we expect the effects of the coronavirus crisis to drag inflation below 1.0% in the months ahead. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation fell in February, and we expect it to moderate sharply this year as capacity shortages evaporate and the coronavirus opens up slack in the economy. By far the deepest downturn since 2009... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slump in oil prices will cause headline inflation to plummet to below 1% in the second quarter, from 2.2% in February. While weaker activity will put downward pressure on core inflation in the... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Worsening outbreak will prompt SARB to cut Activity data from January suggest that the economy was already contracting before the coronavirus reached South Africa. The outbreak will add to economic headwinds. Policymakers are likely to spring... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Coronavirus derailing the economy Surveys and timely data from late-February onwards show that the economy is in the midst of a deep downturn. Cinema sales, restaurant reservations and the Economy Watchers Survey all point towards... 18th March 2020 · 10 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The drop in wholesale price inflation in February is an added source of comfort for the RBI following the fall in CPI inflation last month. We think it will follow its global peers by further... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2020) The modest decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.0% y/y, probably gives Copom leeway to lower the Selic rate by 25bp when it meets next week, despite the fall in the real. 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the risk of deflation back? While the drop in oil prices will push inflation down in the near term, the bigger disinflationary risk could stem from the effect of the coronavirus on economic activity. Indeed, we said after the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
