UK Economics Consumer Prices (Dec.) After rising from 5.1% in November to 5.4% in December, CPI inflation is now further above the Bank of England’s target than at any point since the UK first adopted an inflation target in October 1992... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s “new economic model” to amplify old problems The “new economic model” adopted by Turkey’s government is likely to mean low real interest rates and a persistently weak lira, but it will come alongside a shift towards capital controls, ever higher... 18th January 2022 · 16 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank to have to change tack The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in... 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More inflation, more interest rate hikes Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the... 17th January 2022 · 27 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) The surprise rise in inflation in Nigeria, to 15.6% y/y in December, will more likely than not prove to be a blip. We don’t think that policymakers will rush to raise interest rates in response. 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that EM equities will continue to outperform While emerging market (EM) equities have performed better than developed market (DM) equities so far this year, we don’t think that this pattern is likely to continue. 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Ivey PMI suggests widespread Omicron disruption The various reports this week of intense labour shortages and the slump in the Ivey PMI in December suggest that the Omicron variant is causing widespread economic disruption. 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge A tense week of negotiations between Russia, the US and NATO have ended with what now seems to be a more serious ratcheting up of tensions over Ukraine. It seems like that Russia’s recent belligerent... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Ramifications could be bigger if PM stays than if he goes The growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's position is unlikely to dent economic activity. Arguably, though, if a leadership challenge is avoided or Boris Johnson wins it, the... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone GDP barely grew in Q4, inflation risks rise Data released this week suggest that our assumption that euro-zone GDP rose by 0.2% in Q4 could be too optimistic, but we still think that the economy will grow in Q1. Meanwhile, rapid house price... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Inflation fears to keep central banks in tightening mode There were signs that supply shortages were starting to ease in some places at the tail end of 2021. World trade was its strongest since shortages began to bite a year ago and industrial production... 14th January 2022 · 13 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strict isolation rules could cause severe shortages While we think Japan’s economy entered 2022 just above its pre-pandemic level, consumer spending will probably be knocked back this quarter by light-touch restrictions which are likely to be reimposed... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in December will embolden the hawks at the Riksbank. While we expect energy effects will drop out this year, continued supply-chain problems and rising inflation... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Omicron surging, asset sales progressing COVID-19 cases in India are still surging. But the early indications are that healthcare systems are not under significant pressure, and we’re hopeful that India’s third wave will peak before long... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation edged up to 1.2% y/y in December and we think that the headline rate will drift a little higher over the first half of this year before stabilising at around 1.0-1.5% over the rest of... 13th January 2022 · 2 mins read
