Strict isolation rules could cause severe shortages

While we think Japan’s economy entered 2022 just above its pre-pandemic level, consumer spending will probably be knocked back this quarter by light-touch restrictions which are likely to be reimposed across most of the country within the next couple of weeks. Moreover, the added transmissibility of Omicron is likely to lead to a sizeable wave of staff absences in Japan. While PM Kishida is set to reduce the isolation period for coronavirus patients and their close contacts from 14 to 10 days, that would still be a strict isolation regime when compared with most Western countries. All told, we think Omicron will limit the economy to just a 0.2% q/q rise this quarter before a rebound in growth across Q2 and Q3.